Every January I sit down here with a couple of beers and ponder what the coming year will have in store for Craft Beer in Ontario. Let's just say last year that turned out to be an exercise in futility as the Covid-19 pandemic hit us and the lockdowns and business restrictions hit us mid-March...on my birthday no less. So, all of my careful considerations and prognostications went mostly out the window and I became both a spectator and a participant in one of the world's strangest years in a century. I will admit that the pivots from both breweries and the provincial government were impressive to say the least and the freeing up of bars and restaurants to be able to deliver wine and beer with food was a good decision and the move toward more home delivery was a godsend to many folks who wanted to stay in and hunker down. It has certainly opened up the province to anyone who wants to explore from their phone or computer and with well north of 75% of brewers offering some form of delivery it is a positive change amidst the chaos.
The continuing shutdowns and rules restricting indoor/outdoor dining keeping us drinking at home, the bottle shops, restaurants and bars will need our support more than ever. We tend to stay close to home to spend our cash hyper-locally, although we do have some favourite breweries out of town that we will continue to support as best we can. I feel like this is most craft beer drinkers, trying to balance a worry about their favourite local places and others they love to visit from time to time, made easier by online ordering for sure, but still the dollars are stretching thin and these next couple of months are going to be the most difficult we've seen in this entire pandemic.
So, looking ahead to the next year or so is not easy or simple. The Federal government and their provincial counterparts have put in place some programs to assist with rent and wage subsidies, perhaps the loosening of some more regulations will continue to help breweries survive and even thrive as we hope to see an end to this trying time later in 2021. But I have some thoughts, nothing but musings and observations, hopes and dreams of what may be to come as we round into the back stretch of what has been a difficult to navigate emotional and mentally draining time for everyone.
1. The rise of Independant Bottle Shops/Restaurants
The legislation, at first temporary now permanent, relaxing the tight fisted control on restaurants and bars being able to sell to-go beer and wine will have a whole lot of long lasting impacts of the craft beer world, the biggest of which is the opportunity to see the rise of independent bottle shops carrying a plethora of Ontario and world craft beer under the guise of being "restaurants". The rules vary by municipality, but suffice it to say that with a little diligence and loophole digging, we are already seeing pop-up bottle shops testing the waters with an eye to more permanent locations coming. An entrepreneurial and dedicated person or group is but a spark away from bringing something new and exciting to our streets. This could be the development most watched for in 2021, if the money holds out and the rise in sales of craft beer continues, the buzz seems to suggest that this is the thing to keep an eye on.
2. Growth, yes really
I was worried at the beginning of the spring that we were going to lose a large chunk of our craft brewers to the economic downturn, perhaps forgetting that in a crisis, people like to drink...a lot. From most of the folks I talk to, they are buying more and doing it more often from the source than before. They want to support local small businesses and it doesn't get more local than your friendly neighbourhood craft brewer. The patios were full all summer and into the fall, food trucks abounded and the prospects were good. The fall and late months of 2020 provided more sales as people continued to buy beer for the holidays at home and for friends distanced by the virus. Driveway beers gave way to garage beers or Zoom calls and now that the holiday season has passed, the inevitable slowdown is arriving.
But.
I think that there are some breweries out there struggling, stripped down bare and without their taprooms and increased competition in an overcrowded LCBO, worried about market share. Again, I'm working from my gut and a little intuition mixed with information gleaned from conversations, but I really believe we will end 2021 with more breweries than we started. The ones who will not make it will be outpaced by the new ones already in the pipeline, a balance tipped forward to growth rather than backward to contraction. The money exists, interest rates remain incredibly low and the market is not near as saturated as some would think. The local movement of people wanting to have that taproom close by and becoming ardent supporters of whomever sets up shop will continue to fuel the boom for the near future. Making good and consistent beer will no doubt also play a factor as consumers vote with their dollars, but there is a larger segment of the population that will overlook some flaws in order to have that cache of being able to have a close by beer maker to call their own. This already exists in some places where the beer is decidedly sub par, but those who live and work close by will defend and spend to the very end their local brewery.
I hope we don't lose anyone and I think that hope is just that and this coming year will see some dreams end. I also believe it will see more of them start to come true and that is something we can all look forward to.
3. Short Cans
While I know the local liquor monopoly loves tall boy cans, the movement to smaller sized 335ml cans is going to continue to rise as more breweries find the format is appreciated by a lot of folks who like sessionable sizes for drinking. They will never take over from the classic 473ml cans, the system and our own old biases seem to be dead set against them, but I think they have a place going forward, especially in the higher ABV range barrel aged and/or Imperial stouts and IPAs. A province that has gained a little pandemic weight may not mind a little less calories per glass, so let's see if this continues to be a trend on the rise.
4. Light Beer
This one is something I've watched happen in real time as breweries continue to roll out low ABV or session IPAs and lagers, even stouts, to keep up with consumer demand. Healthy conscious for sure, but for a lot of folks, they want to able to have 3 or 4 beers while hanging out and not be half in the bag halfway through the night. The older craft beer drinker and the more attuned to what they are putting in their bodies want an option that is still full-bodied, lacking nothing but without that 6%+ ABV. There are some great examples already and I think we will see even more hitting the shelves at Grocery stores and the LCBO as the warmer weather approaches in 2021.
5. Novelty Beers, Seltzers and More
There was a distinct rise in craft breweries releasing seltzers around the summer months and I see no reason that wont continue to grow in 2021. From the ones I was able to lay my hands on, they were heads and shoulders above the White Claws of the world and with a fanbase already attuned to trying new things, it has a built-in market right at home.
In the same vein comes the slushie beers, pastry stouts with more adjuncts than barley and a whole host of things I am sure line the dreams of brewers around the province. With a consumer likely looking to find the new in thing out there ready to spend money, there are a myriad of hybrid styles and crazy things to be heard in the coming year. Is it a big part of the market? No, but it is a part that will help get people out and about once we can get back to a more normal beer buying and drinking experience.
It's only 5 things, I was going to talk about Lagers again, but I think I'll take a pass this year, knowing they'll still sell like wild at the breweries while getting little love from the influencers of the world. Not sexy enough I guess, but damned if regular beer drinking people don't love them. I had a thing about influencers, TikTok, Instagram and Reels, but again, beating the drum on that one seems better left for its own little turn on the blog, suffice it to say I think you're about to see more dancing and production on social media to try and drive that algorithm on Instagram while Facebook remains a wasteland and Twitter yells at the clouds. There are great people doing awesome things across social media, but I am a little more than jaded after 6 years of watching the world of talking about beer slide more and more into a short hit, visual medium rather than long form, thoughtful discussions and reviews. A lone voice perhaps, but its who I am and what I do.
2021 will see me trying to use whatever platform or influence I have to continue to lift up BIPOC voices and causes, supporting those that do good in my local community and the craft beer one at large. I will continue to promote and offer advice to anyone starting out who wants to spread a little love of beer around the world and I will remain the same, unreserved and unrestrained bastard I've always been.
Stay safe, stay sane and be good to each other. We've got a ways to go before we see true daylight in 2021.
Cheers, Polk
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